Weather changes things. Ask Major League Baseball. Game three of The World Series was postponed earlier this week due to it. I am writing this article exactly one week before the midterm elections in the United States. While it is always important to watch the evolving forecast (not the one you see today), let’s see what the November 8th weather landscape looks like for much of continental U.S. next Tuesday.
Predicted surface weather map on November 8th
The NOAA National Weather Service surface map was issued on November 1st and projects the weather scenario for the morning of November 8th (above) shows the presence of high pressure east of the Rockies. There are also a series of frontal systems in the western U.S. and across the Great Lakes region. What does all of that mean? Let me put my meteorology degrees to use. I have perused the NOAA Weather Prediction Center extended discussion and the weather models. From my vantagepoint, most of the South, East, and Midwest should be relatively rain free. A ribbon of moisture out of the Pacific called an atmospheric river is likely to produce some precipitation (rain and snow) in the Pacific Northwest and into the western mountainous regions. NOAA forecasters mention in their discussion, “The pattern may support continuation of some precipitation over the northern half of the West through the first half of next week. Snow levels over far northern areas may trend notably lower depending on the southward extent of cold air pushing down from western Canada.”
One model (American GFS) projection of temperatures mid-afternoon on November 8th.
In the southern part of the western region, cooler temperatures could be in the forecast by early next week. The NOAA discussion says, “The evolving upper pattern should support a push of cold air reaching the northern High Plains/eastern slopes of the Rockies by next Monday-Tuesday.” In other words, below normal temperatures will have the West feeling like winter, and voters will need their coats. In the East, on the other hand, temperatures will be “more typical for earlier in the fall” according to NOAA.
American GFS model projection for precipitation on the afternoon of Election Day
The astute observer will notice a low pressure system off the coast of Florida in the previous maps. NOAA points out, “Near the East Coast, by very late in the period some moisture could approach from the Atlantic as an upper low near the Bahamas retrogrades toward Florida.” We will certainly keep an eye on this system as parts of Florida could experience some rainfall with this system. Ironically, the tropics are quite active for early November. Tropical Storms Lisa and Martin are expected to become hurricanes in the coming days but are no threat to the U.S. mainland.
Weather can certainly impact voter turnout. I have written in the past about this very topic. In a previous Forbes piece, I reminded readers, “We know from several studies in the scientific and political science literature that rain, extreme temperatures, or hurricanes can impact voter turnout.” There are all types of analyses on who benefits, but the era of early voting certainly is a modifier. For now, it looks like most of the country will have decent “voting” weather, but as I always advise, watch the evolving forecast.
Tropical systems Lisa and Martin on November 1st, 2022
